Cuba Looks Beyond U. S.

Focusing on Other Options 

      The vulnerable, pugnacious island of Cuba has grown tired of wavering in the Caribbean winds waiting for some Democratic administration in Washington to ease and mollify the Cuban designs of Republican administrations, which have consistently from Eisenhower in 1959 to Trump in 2017 used {or plan to use} superpower muscle in efforts to starve and deprive Cubans on the island as a prime, undemocratic component of eviscerating Revolutionary Cuba. And with the Democrat, Cuba-friendly Barack Obama, finishing his two-term presidency and the Republican Cuba-antagonist, Trump, poised to start his first term, Cuba is now ready to go full-bore in "correcting its biggest revolutionary mistake," which it concludes has been "waiting like a lamb for America's vacillating two-party political system to mandate a willingness for Cuba to exist as a sovereign state." As the Obama-to-Trump transition begins to occur in the United States, in about a year from now there will be an equally significant transition in Cuba where the 85-year-old Raul Castro is scheduled to be replaced by the 56-year-old Miguel Diaz-Canel. The quotations above reflect Diaz-Canel's recent conclusions; they are significant. Not only is he in line to be the first non-Castro leader of Cuba since 1959, he has been Cuba's First Vice-President, second only to Raul Castro, since 2013, and that leap-frogged him over still-living and ultra-powerful revolutionary icons such as Raul's dear friend, 86-year-old Jose Machado Ventura, and over Raul's own 53-year-old very ambitious son Alejandro Castro Espin.

        Not only does Miguel Diaz-Canel have Raul Castro's ear, he is also well-liked by Cuba's general population. Born in Santa Clara 56-years-ago, Miguel endeared himself to Cubans when, representing the government, he rode his motorcycle to check on the needs of everyday Cubans and listen to their "complaints and desires," which he calls "my favorite days as a politician." Considered modest and well-grounded, he, like most Cubans, is very fond of American movies and music but not America's politics.

      As he has aged, Raul Castro has surprised many observers by grooming a non-Castro and a non-revolutionary figure like Miguel Diaz-Canel as his successor. Raul never relished being forced to succeed his very ill older brother Fidel as Cuba's leader in 2008 but he had relished being the head of Cuba's military for decades. But even then, noted for being family oriented, Raul insisted on being home each night for dinner both before and after the death of his equally famous revolutionary wife Vilma Espin, who died in 2007. Turning 86 on June 3rd, Raul is now very tired and relishes handing the reins over to his hand-picked heir, Miguel, even as Cuban hardliners in Miami and Washington claim it won't happen.

      Miguel Diaz-Canel has already established close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "I wasn't born then but I have studied 1959," Miguel recently told an El Pais Reporter.  "1959 was the first year of revolutionary rule and one of the first things Fidel did was visit the U. S., believing he could forge friendly ties with the United States' Eisenhower government. He was wrong. By the time he got back to Cuba in April, 1959, after 12 wasted days in the U. S., they were trying to kill him, starve the Cuban people, and busily preparing for the Bay of Pigs attack. Fidel had one choice -- the Soviet Union, then the only other nuclear superpower, as a counter-balance to the U. S. plans for Cuba. Since 2008 Raul has tried to forge ties with the U. S. and had success with the Obama White House. Now Obama leaves and Trump takes over. Trump will have about 6800 nuclear weapons but Putin has about 7200. The third strongest nuclear power, France, has about 300. So am I glad that Mr. Putin assures me that he is Cuba's friend and he reminds me that Trump is not? Yes, I'm glad." 

       Miguel Diaz-Canel has also made it a point to forge close ties with China's top leader, Xi Jinping. China is the fastest growing nuclear superpower with a massive military machine but also China has more available investment cash than any nation in the world and Diaz-Canel covets more Chinese investments.

      Miguel Diaz-Canel has also already forged close ties with Vietnam's leader Nguyen Tan Dung. Like the United States, Miguel is extremely impressed with Vietnamese prosperity since winning the Vietnam War by out-lasting the United States. Miguel has closely studied Vietnam's economy, which blends capitalism with communism and pragmatism, and he is convinced that "a Vietnamese-style economy is the best way to counter the American embargo, which punishes some other nations just for doing minor business with Cuba." 

        To be sure, Miguel Diaz-Canel has been sharply criticized -- included by Cubaninsider's one-trick-pony -- for cozying up to North Korea's dangerous, nuclear-crazed North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Back in Cuba, when quizzed by Reuters, Miguel said, "I am not a military man. I believe in diplomacy and engagement. I believe in exchanging goodwill and trade goods, not missiles. The USA newspaper Today says the U. S. is the world's largest seller of weapons at $40 billion a year with France the second largest at $15 billion. So it's no surprise that even terrorist groups are armed to the teeth and conflicts dominate the headlines. As for your suggestion that I cozied up to North Korea, I might have tried to tone down Kim's military emphasis as money and time best devoted to his people. The Cuban people know that is what I cozy up to in Cuba, so how's that?"  

      Miguel Diaz-Canel has made it a point to cozy up to the most decent and the most important Cuba-friendly leaders around the world -- such as Frederica Mogherini. She is the leader of the 28-nation European Union, which a few days ago signed a key Agreement with Cuba so the European nations, long restricted by elements of the U. S. embargo against Cuba, can engage more productively with the island.

       This photo, taken by Ismail Francisco, shows a young Cuban teacher listening intently to a speech by Miguel Diaz-Canel. The teachers and medical personnel on the island, in particular, are wildly supportive of Diaz-Canel as their future leader and Raul Castro is abundantly aware of Diaz-Canel's huge following in those key sectors. This teacher heard Miguel say, "I am so proud of the education and health workers who have sacrificed so much to contribute so much to the Cuban people. The quality, often under duress, in both those areas is incredibly high, as even our enemies admit. I want so much to lessen the sacrifices, the burdens, that our teachers and our health associates face as we strive to serve our people with even higher quality. What your dedication and courage has accomplished is historic, especially with the resistance of the ageless U. S. embargo that keeps some essentials from your skilled hands and loving hearts. I think people like you will be rewarded in heaven but I want you to be rewarded on this island too, and I want it sooner instead of later." 

      

        To be sure, there are rampant predictions on the island and in Miami that the next leader of Cuba a year or so from now will be General Alvaro Lopez Miera, not Miguel Diaz-Canel. That is based on two beliefs: {1} He reportedly wants the job and {2} he is the one man that Raul Castro will not turn down. Alvaro Lopez, at 72, is the youngest of the still-living revolutionary icons. At age 14 he joined Raul Castro's unit in the Sierra Cristal region and quickly established himself as a dedicated guerrilla fighter. After the revolutionary victory, it is said that Raul and his famed wife Vilma Espin essentially adopted Alvaro Lopez as their son and it's been reported that any job he wanted in the military "was his for the asking." It is believed that Alvaro Lopez has let it be known that he wants to succeed Raul as the next non-Castro leader of Cuba at the start of 2018. And that's why rumors now persist that Alvaro Lopez will be the next leader of Cuba.

      But I believe those rumors are wrong and that Raul Castro will stick with his plan to have Miguel Diaz-Canel as his successor. Raul is bound-and-determined that Cuba's revolutionary standards continue after his retirement and after his passing. But neither he nor his brother Fidel wanted a Castro or a military dynasty perpetuated indefinitely. That's why, for example, Raul frowns on the prospect of even his very ambitious 53-year-old son Alejandro Castro Espin being the next leader of Cuba. Raul, like Fidel, is extremely proud of the educational and health standards the revolution initiated and has maintained on the island, and no one epitomizes and promotes those two fields and revolutionary achievements more than Miguel Diaz-Canel. Moreover, Raul understands that Miguel, while neither a militarist nor a rebel, is a firm believer in all aspects of the Revolution, especially in the hallmark educational and health spectrums.

       So, probably by January of 2018, Miguel Diaz-Canel will be the new leader of Cuba. If that doesn't happen, it would mean that something drastic happened to prevent it -- in Havana, Miami or Washington. The capsule recap above is courtesy of www.stratfor.com. Miguel believes that Cuba would be "best served" by friendly relations with the United States. But he doesn't believe Miami and Washington will allow that to happen. Therefore, "the next best thing," he believes, is for Cuba to be "close friends" with all the other countries in the world. That, of course, includes China and Russia; China has more available money to invest in Cuba than the U. S. has and Russia has more available nuclear weapons than the U. S. has.

Miguel Diaz-Canel

&*************************&