Massive Changes In 2016
For a couple of decades now, Robin Wright has been the best and most honored American writer as an astute and incisive Foreign Affairs analyst. She has reported from 140 countries for a plethora of the most respected news organizations in the U. S. and UK. A brilliant journalist and author, Robin Wright is a must-read for both her analyses and her extraordinarily adept use of the English language. Robin Wright recently visited Cuba to observe how the island's geriatric revolutionary government, aged but not ageless, and its increasingly restive citizenry are preparing for the pivotal New Year of 2016!!
The esoteric New Yorker is one of America's most influential media sources, especially among those who admire brilliant writing. Yesterday, December 30th, the top article in the New Yorker was penned by Robin Wright. It was entitled "CUBA AND IRAN: MELANCHOLY TWINS." If you missed it, be sure to check it out online.
 |
| Photo courtesy: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images.
Robin Wright's article in yesterday's New Yorker was illustrated by the above photo. Her update was clearly anti-Cuba but it was also fair and insightful. This was her first paragraph:
"The first thing that struck me during a trip to Cuba this month was how much it reminds me of Iran. Despite divergent ideologies -- Communist, Islamic -- the aging revolutions emit the same cranky melancholia. Rhetoric is still defiant, but public zealotry has atrophied. The graffiti of rebellion, once vibrant, has faded."
The triumphs of the Cuban Revolution in 1959 and the Iranian Revolution in 1979 have always intrigued Robin Wright. And that's good because her intrigue has resulted in the best analysis of how the two mind-boggling, anti-American revolutions have so mightily affected the United States and the world, especially after overthrowing U.S.-friendly dictators -- Batista in Cuba and the Shaw in Iran. Ms. Wright's musings about what the New Year portends for Cuba in 2016 were particularly interesting. She wrote:
"In Cuba, the ailing Fidel Castro will be ninety in the new year; his brother Raul...is eighty-four. Speculation about successors include Raul's outspoken daughter Mariela...and First Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel. But few have a clue about what's likely to happen."
Ummmm? Coming from Robin Wright, highlighting Mariela and Miguel as post-Castro leaders of Cuba is a prognostication that is well worth pondering.
During the Cuban Revolution, two of the prime guerrilla fighters -- Raul Castro and Vilma Espin -- fell madly in love even as they fought Batista's soldiers.
In 1959, right after the Cuban Revolution shocked the world by overthrowing the Batista-Mafia dictatorship, two weddings paired four of the prime guerrilla fighters. Raul Castro married Vilma Espin and Che Guevara married Aleida March.
 Aleida Guevara was born 79 years ago in Santa Clara, Cuba. She is the mother of Che's four children and still a very prolific supporter of the Cuban Revolution. In this Wikipedia photo, she was with Che in 1961. Aleida's biography -- "Remembering Che" -- remains one of the best first-hand accounts of the Cuban Revolution. 
In Revolutionary Cuba beginning in 1959, this was the Big Four as far as power and decision-making was concerned. Left to right is Vilma Espin, Fidel Castro, Raul Castro, and Celia Sanchez. With Fidel's concurrence, the prime decision-maker was Celia Sanchez till she died of cancer in 1980 at age 59. Vilma died of cancer in 2007 at age 77. Fidel turns 90 on August 13, 2016, and Raul turns 85 on June 3, 2016. While this listing of Revolutionary Cuba's Big Four is conveniently disputed in the U. S., it nevertheless is known to be accurate by revolutionary insiders on the island. And that, in fact, is one reason the Big Four posed for the epic photo listed above.
Vilma Espin and Raul Castro had four children: Mariela, Alejandro, Deborah, and Nilsa. The rebellious Mariela, twice-married and a devoted mother, is the most famous of the quartet because of her high-profile advocacy of homosexual rights. It is interesting that Robin Wright, in yesterday's insightful New Yorker article, listed Mariela, along with Miguel Diaz-Canel, as a likely potential future leader of Cuba.
Mariela Castro is well-liked on the island of Cuba and she also has a large international following because of her defiant and provocative support of Civil Rights. Now 53-years-old, Mariela Castro Espin is an effective and passionate speaker but she has no desire to succeed her father Raul as the President of Cuba.
This montage shows Mariela on the left and her sister Deborah Castro Espin. Of the two, the lesser known Deborah is far more likely to be a future leader of Cuba.
Deborah is extremely close to her father Raul. Also, both Deborah and her husband have long been key advisers to Raul, especially on economic matters. If the Fidel-Raul successor is another Castro, the best bet is...Deborah Castro Espin!!
But don't count out Alejandro Castro Espin, the 50-year-old son of Raul and Vilma. Alejandro is ambitious and he has a distinguished military rank as well as a strong influence on the economy. Moreover, recently Alejandro has represented Cuba on important international missions, as if foreshadowing his future leadership.
In addition to Mariela Castro Espin, the 55-year-old Miguel Diaz-Canel was the only other Cuban mentioned by Robin Wright as a likely potential leader of Cuba.
President Raul Castro, in fact, has already named Miguel Diaz-Canel as his successor. If the next leader of Cuba is a non-Castro, it will be Miguel Diaz-Canel.
But with all due respect to the predictions this week by the sage Robin Wright, I believe Deborah Castro Espin will emerge as the leader of Cuba succeeding her uncle Fidel and her father Raul. In late 2017 or early 2018, Miguel Diaz-Canel will likely be the upfront leader of Cuba. But, I believe, Deborah and her husband Luis Alberto Rodriguez will be the two powers behind the throne for a time before the mantle is officially bestowed unto them. The post-Castro transition in Cuba will result in some jockeying at the top involving non-Castros such as Miguel Diaz-Canel and Josefina Vidal pitted against Castros like Alejandro and Deborah Castro Espin. I think Deborah will win because of two things: {1} Her closeness to her father Raul; and {2} her ultra-powerful husband Luis Alberto.
Cuban President Raul Castro is extremely close to his oldest daughter, Deborah. Vilmita, named for her grandmother Vilma and shown above with her grandfather Raul, is Deborah's beautiful daughter, whom Raul verily adores. Vilmita, who relishes visits to the U. S., is now easily the most Americanized of the fourteen children of Fidel and Raul -- except for Fidel's two daughters, both of whom live in Miami.
And speaking of Fidel, when Cuba is the topic -- past, present, or future -- it all comes back to him. And, via his legacy, it will always be that way. Yes, he is ill. Yes, he turns 90 in 2016...if he survives till August 13th. Regarding the post-Castro leader of Cuba, Fidel prefers that it not be a Castro. In addition to his two daughters in Miami, Fidel has eight sons, all of whom are very loyal to him but have no desires to be future leaders. Fidel would like for Cuba's next leader to be a woman, and his choice is Josefina Vidal because she reminds him of...Celia Sanchez, his revolutionary soul-mate. But regardless of how it shakes out, the Cuban Revolution, Revolutionary Cuba, and post-Revolutionary Cuba will always be Fidel Castro's.
And speaking of Josefina Vidal, she indeed would be the ideal post-Castro leader of Cuba. Yet, it's an island where things are always intriguing but seldom ideal. And anyway, she is Cuba's greatest defender but has no desire to be its next leader.
And by the way:
This photograph was taken by Tomas Murita for the New York Times. The New York Times wisely selected it as "one of the year's most riveting photographs" for 2015. The girl in this photograph loved the little baby she is holding. And the rest of the world should too. But 2015 taught us much of the world doesn't...love babies.
 |
No comments:
Post a Comment